Two steps forward and three steps back. All the progress that Scotland seemed to have made against France was thrown away on Saturday as the Scots went down 32–14 in Dublin.
More importantly, Scotland lost the try count four–one (having matched France two each). Not only that, but the areas of supposedly strength for the Scots – the scrum and line-out – faltered so badly it was almost back to the bad old days of a few years ago.
Let’s start with the positives because it won’t take long: Richie Gray.
Gray was immense in the loose and scored a try that will have Ireland full-back Rob Kearney being ribbed about for years.
For anyone to be sold an outrageous dummy by a galloping lock forward is bad enough, but to have it happen to a Lions full-back is pretty unforgiveable. But all credit to Gray. He took his try very well indeed and is really developing into a top-class young lock.
But while Gray was excellent in the loose, he didn’t show up as well in the line-out, which misfired for the first time this championship. For that he must take some of the blame, as must captain and hooker Ross Ford (who had his quietest game of the tournament), Jim Hamilton and the back row.
Graeme Morrison also had a strong game in defence – his holding up of Tommy Bowe over the line and preventing a try was a great example of knowing the rules and executing the letter of the law to perfection, but was his usual rather laboured self in attack.
So what about the negatives? Scotland were poor in defence, individually and collectively.
Rory Best’s try could have been stopped in an ideal world – but, as it came from a set move, it would only have been prevented had Scotland had a prop stationed on the line, so was probably unavoidable.
The second try, though, when Eoin Reddan nipped under Sean Lamont’s stupid lunge, was entirely self-inflicted. Lamont came racing out of the defensive line, threw himself at Reddan in an illegal charge (he wasn’t using his arms) and Reddan ducked underneath, the gap was there from Lamont’s absence and Reddan scored.
The third was also avoidable. Lee Jones took a mark on the left-hand touchline with just two minutes remaining until half-time. Yet, instead of kicking deep and long to touch, the young winger flung the ball back, Scotland were all over the place and eventually an panicked Greig Laidlaw booted the ball into touch, giving Ireland an attacking line-out on Scotland’s 22. Two phases of precision rugby later (of the sort Scotland can’t match) Ireland scored through Andrew Trimble and it was game over.
The Scotland bench was supposed to carry the experience Scotland needed to win the game if they were still in it as the match entered the final quarter. The Scots were still in it at that point – or they were that is until the subs came on.
Euan Murray was supposed to come on to dominate the set piece – but, after Geoff Cross went off, Scotland were shunted backwards.
It is hard to say of it of a once mighty prop, but maybe Murray’s time is up. He is not the force he was. Cross has improved massively and, with Jon Welsh and Ed Kalman snapping at their heels, maybe it is time for a shake up of the Scotland front row and put Murray out to grass permanently.
Yes, Ireland played the game very close to the edge of the laws all the time. There were at least two clear high tackles on Ruaridh Jackson and he was only on the field for the last 20 minutes. The Trimble tackle that put paid to Jones’ afternoon looked suspiciously lacking in any arms as the laws dictate and Ireland’s choke tackle worked occasionally in slowing down Scottish ball.
But none of this should have been a shock to Scotland. What Scotland needed to be was as ruthless and efficient as Ireland and, on the one occasion when Scotland were in the ascendant, they did the opposite.
It was approaching half-time and Scotland had consecutive throws right on the Irish line. They drove the maul twice. Twice Ireland brought it down and, on the second occasion the New Zealand referee Chris Pollock warned the Irish they were in danger of losing a player to the bin.
Scotland had a third penalty in an identical position and should have gone for the drive for the third time. They should have been confident of getting a penalty in kickable range at the very least and probably have Ireland reduced to 14 men and even maybe a penalty.
That’s what Ireland would have done. But Scotland? They kicked for the posts, secured a measly three points and let Ireland off the hook.
That was the moment that the game was effectively lost. Had Scotland gone for the third maul and scored and had Ireland reduced to 14 men, they would have had the psychological advantage, Ireland would have been terrified of the maul afterwards and Scotland could – and should – have gone on to dominate.
That failure to capitalise on Ireland’s one weakness raises question-marks over Ford’s captaincy. Indeed, it was instructive how Al Kellock took over the lead role in motivating and cajoling the forwards after he came on as a substitute late on.
Kellock cannot command a first-team place, it seems, but he is the most impressive leader in this team. Maybe that should guarantee him a place in the team after all, particularly if Ford only has the job because he is the one cast-iron selection that Andy Robinson has got. If that’s all he has, maybe he shouldn’t be captain?
So it’s off to Italy for yet another wooden spoon decider: how depressingly familiar.
What should Robinson do?
Play the form players in their best positions. It is really that simple. Laidlaw has been great for Edinburgh but he is not an international class fly-half. He makes the wrong decisions, he passes too deep, he can’t kick far enough from hand and his defence isn’t good enough.
He kicks beautifully from the tee and can dovetail really well with Mike Blair but he does not vary the game up enough to challenge the best defences in Europe. How many times did we see a chip over the top to keep the Irish defence honest, or the French, or the Welsh? None.
Scotland ran the ball at every opportunity almost without regard for whether it was the right thing to do and that comes down to the fly-half and the game plan. It was Robinson’s game plan and Laidlaw’s execution and they both have to change.
Robinson has to play Duncan Weir or Ruaridh Jackson at ten against Italy: preferably Weir because it will be another nail-biter and Weir is much more reliable off the tee than Jackson and any missed kicks could cost Scotland the game.
Chris Cusiter is strangely off form, which means Laidlaw could play at nine (that way he could take the kicks at goal if Jackson gets the nod at ten) but Blair is still the best threat from nine so should keep his place.
For all his defensive brilliance, Morrison isn’t up to it in midfield and that is where our problems seem to come from. Matt Scott should get a run at 12 with Nick De Luca back at 13.
With Lee Jones probably out for the Italy game and Rory Lamont out for the season, Robinson has to bring Max Evans back on the wing. That would leave Sean Lamont in the side but with a warning not to be so impetuous next time.
The team for the Italy game should be: Jon Welsh, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Richie Gray, Al Kellock (c), David Denton, Ross Rennie, Richie Vernon, Mike Blair, Duncan Weir, Sean Lamont, Matt Scott, Nick De Luca, Max Evans, Stuart Hogg. Subs: Ed Kalman, Scott Lawson, Jim Hamilton, John Barclay, Greig Laidlaw, Graeme Morrison, Jo Ansbro (if fit, otherwise Jim Thompson).
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