Respected rugby writer Stephen Jones warned in yesterday's Sunday Times that Scotland, a once proud rugby nation, was in danger of slipping into "freefall", that the nation's decline was now almost irreversible and that Scotland risked losing its position at the sport's top table.
That was written before yesterday's Calcutta Cup match at Twickenham, and although Scotland did enough in losing 22–16 to England to suggest that the nation's decline is not irreversible, the game did hint that the serious long-term problems that Scottish teams have struggled to overcome for the last decade are no nearer being solved.
First and foremost, Scotland lost. Again. That the Scots did better than almost everyone had suggested beforehand can't hide the fact that this was the team's fourth loss in succession in this year's Six Nations and now only the France-beating Italy side stand between Scotland and the wooden spoon.
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The game was tight. It was locked at 9–9 well into the second half with neither side able to get on top. That was a remarkable achievement for a Scotland side languishing at the bottom of the table playing away to an England side that has been cruising with tries and wins all season. But the match hinged on the sin-binning of John Barclay, the Scotland flanker. He was yellow-carded for sticking his hands into the ruck under Scotland's posts, a decision which has since been criticised by many in the Scottish camp. During Barclay's absence, England scored ten points: game over. Scotland did come back through Max Evans' delightful individual try, but the crucial points gap, which England had cultivated during that period, was never one that Scotland could make up. This is the second match in succession which Scotland have lost during the time they have been down to 14 men. Allan Jacobsen's sin-binning against Ireland sparked the final Irish try and the one that took the game away from Scotland. Two games, two sin-binnings and two defeats: on such margins are championships won and, in Scotland's case, lost. But there is more to it than that. The roots of Scotland's sin-binnings were the same – inferiority at the set-piece. More often than not, a referee will card a player from the team under pressure, almost certainly because they feel the team under the cosh will resort to underhand methods to get even. In Barclay's case, this was compounded by the fact that he was in the shadow of his own posts when this happened, clear evidence that his team were really struggling at that point. Against Ireland, Jacobsen was binned for illegal scrummaging, again highlighting the harsh penalty for teams the referee feels is second-best in the set-piece. And this is Scotland's core problem. Yesterday, the line-out was woeful. Scotland lost ball after ball after ball at the line-out, which should have been rock-solid. The scrum was little better. Scotland were pushed around and penalised all afternoon. The referee then acted accordingly and favoured England's stronger, more powerful forwards. It was the same for Scotland in the French game, it was only slightly better in the Welsh and Irish games and it is expected to be just as bad in the Italy game next Sunday. So, to answer Stephen Jones' argument, Scotland are not in "freefall" – just yet. They are not in irreversible decline, but they will be unless they find a combative pack which can gain parity at the very least, and superiority at most, against the teams they come up against. Scotland lost the Calcutta Cup during the time Barclay was in the bin, but the loss started with Ross Ford's first failed throw-in and developed with every creaking scrum and missed line-out. As in most games, it was lost up front. If Scotland want to start winning games again and prove they can regain their place at rugby's top table, then they need to find a pack of forwards who can boss their opponents. With that will come more penalties, more refereeing decisions in their favour, better field positions, more tries and more victories. It is as simple and as elusive as that. The problem is, though, that while Scotland continue to produce fewer rugby players than their competitors (there are 12 players in England for every one in Scotland), they will always struggle to find the mean, bruising heavyweights to compete. Fewer players overall means fewer of the sort who can subdue an opposition pack. Just look at what happened in the final quarter when both coaches emptied their benches in an attempt to win the match. England brought on four starring Lions: Tom Croft, a fantastic athlete who scored his team's crucial, match-winning try, Steve Thompson, a brutal and rumbustious hooker, the huge and powerful Simon Shaw and – of course – Jonny Wilkinson. Who did Scotland bring on? Scott Lawson at hooker, Alasdair Strokosch at flanker, Dan Parks at 10, Richie Vernon at no.8, Nick de Luca in the centre and Geoff Cross at prop. There is no disrespect to any of them. They are all fine, fine players – but not one has been a Lion and there is no prospect of any of them becoming one, at least at the moment. England had better starting forwards and a much, much more powerful bench. When a game is as tight as yesterday's, the team with the greater strength in depth is usually going to win, and that is what happened. Scotland's starting 15 did extremely well. They tackled their hearts out and played their best rugby of the season. Unfortunately, they were beaten up front, lost a man to the sib-bin and then were overwhelmed by England's greater resources on the bench. With such meagre resources, however, it is difficult to see how Scotland can get out of this situation. Unless and until Andy Robinson can unearth a golden generation of players who can take the game from their opponents, it is almost impossible to see a change in the near future. Then, and only then, will Scotland have proved they are not in "freefall" and can try to recover some of the glory days which seem, at the moment, to have disappeared never to return. There were positives, as there always are in close away defeats. Ruaridh Jackson had an excellent game. His line-kicking was superb (it was just a pity that was thrown away in the line-outs), he tackled bravely, passed well, stood close to the gain-line and took his dropped goal with aplomb – something Parks noticeably failed to replicate. Jackson has to be given the 10 shirt for the Italy game and has to be developed ahead of the World Cup. Yesterday was also Chris Paterson's best game for several seasons. The fact that he dove-tailed so well with Jackson is really positive. Paterson slipped in at no.10 on several occasions and stretched the defence. His try-saving tackle on England full-back Ben Foden late in the game was brilliant too, so Robinson should keep those two together. Jo Ansbro is developing into a decent 13 and Evans was excellent on the right wing, taking his try really well. But that was about it. Scotland defended with grit, especially on the inside 10 channel, stopping Chris Ashton from creating the sort of carnage he has done all season. Scotland also competed exceptionally well at the rucks and breakdowns. All they have to do now is find a tougher pack that can't be bossed around, start winning scrums and get back to winning line-outs, find a bench full of Lions and the rest will be easy. "Freefall"? No. Slipping certainly, but not freefall. Not just yet, at any rate.Donate to us: support independent, intelligent, in-depth Scottish journalism from just 3p a day
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