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Don't play poker with John Swinney. If you do, you’ll lose. No-one at Holyrood has more experience of the high stakes bluff, counter bluff and brinkmanship of parliamentary politics than the SNP Finance Secretary – and he is getting rather good at it. For the past three years, Mr Swinney has juggled and negotiated with all of the opposition parties until he has secured his budget and given away the minimum level of concessions possible. It is a fine skill and he will attempt to do the same in this, his fourth, budget process over the next seven days. Whether he will succeed, however, depends on how determined he is to get his budget passed and how keen his opponents are to play politics with the process. The budget will come before parliament next Wednesday, 9 February. By that time, Mr Swinney will know whether he has a deal within his grasp and what last-ditch concessions he will need to offer to get the budget through. For each of the past three years, Mr Swinney has allowed the process to go down to the wire, not making final decisions until just before the final vote is due to be called at 5pm on budget day and this year it looks as if he will do the same again. The parliamentary arithmetic is far from simple. The first, and probably the most significant, sign that Mr Swinney is looking for is from Labour. The Labour Party has 46 votes in the chamber. If Labour decides to vote against the budget (the two Green MSPs have already made it clear they intend to oppose it) that would give the opposition 48 votes. Mr Swinney has the 47 SNP MSPs and has almost certainly done enough to get Margo Macdonald’s independent vote on board too, giving him 48. That, though, won’t be enough. A tied vote means the legislation would fall. So, if Labour vote against, Mr Swinney would need to offer concessions to either the Liberal Democrats or the Tories to get his budget through. A senior parliamentary source explained where the process is now. “John Swinney is holding back on everything until he knows what Labour are going to do. If Labour abstain, he won’t need to offer anything to the Conservatives of the Libs, he could get his budget through without their help. “But, if Labour vote against, he will need one of the other two parties. He doesn’t know which one yet and he probably won’t until next week.” A senior Labour source stressed that the party’s final position on the budget hasn’t been decided yet but the party was likely to vote against. “It just doesn’t do what we want it too. Jobs, jobs, jobs should be the theme and it’s not.” In reality, Labour opposition to the budget is as much about pre-election positioning as anything else. Labour strategists want to go into the campaign with a clear dividing line established between Labour and the SNP and the budget is a good place to start. Strong opposition to the budget would produce the type of clear division Labour wants. Therefore, it is safe to assume that Mr Swinney is working on the presumption that Labour will oppose his budget. That leaves him with the Tories and the Lib Dems. What to do? And who to court? At the moment, Mr Swinney is circling both parties but refusing to concede anything at this stage. This is where the games of brinkmanship and bluff come in. Mr Swinney knows he has a choice. The other parties do not. Indeed, Mr Swinney can play one off against the other in the hope of scaling down their demands in the coming days. Mr Swinney met senior Lib Dems yesterday morning. After the meeting, a Lib Dem source said the meeting had been “encouraging” and said the Libs were happy with the direction Mr Swinney was moving in but that he had still not agreed to their demands. Nor will he, at least not before five minutes to five o’clock next Wednesday. Likewise the Conservatives. They too have had meetings with Mr Swinney this week and although they believe the Finance Secretary is willing to consider their demands, Mr Swinney has not agree to any of them – yet. This is going to be the situation for the next few days. Mr Swinney will want to keep both potential suitors on board but concede nothing to them until and unless he has to. For the Tories and the Libs, this is a question of getting as much from Mr Swinney and not giving their votes away too cheaply. They both want to go to the country in May with concrete achievements behind them but not at the cost of supporting an SNP budget with almost nothing in return. What do the Libs want? £15 million for student bursaries, more help for young people in the job market, a crackdown on top public sector pay and a real cull of the quangos. For the Tories, the list of smaller but more ideological. The Conservatives want the Scottish Government to make sure that when big public sector contracts are handed out, it is local Scottish, private firms who benefit but they also want real reforms of the public sector, opening up at least some of it to competition. The extent to which each party is willing to compromise will only be known by the negotiators but Mr Swinney will be hoping that there is room in each for a deal to be struck. His ideal situation would be to have both the Libs and the Tories still in the game by Wednesday afternoon. He would then be able to give the impression that he is prepared to deal with the other, to force reduced demands from each one. In previous years, Mr Swinney has had an offer of support from the Tories but little realistic from the other opposition parties. This year he has two potential partners to dance around. This should make his job easier but, if he plays it wrong, both of them might walk away. We are much closer to a budget settlement than we were last week. After all, it has passed through its first and second stages with hardly a whisper. These next six days will be crucial and, if Mr Swinney’s previous record is any guide, we shall be just as close – and just as far away – as final budget debate gets underway next Wednesday evening.Want to read more political stories? Consider donating to The Caledonian Mercury
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