Far from bringing calm to the Middle East, the Saudi occupation of Bahrain – for that is what it is – is likely to prolong instability in the region. The deployment of 1,000 troops is a clear sign of panic by the Saudi and Bahraini royal families: future historians may well look back on this episode, dressed up as a peace mission but fooling no one, as a turning point, the moment when the scales fell from many people’s eyes.
For all their ill-gained opulence, we have seen the despotic kings stride through the desert with nothing on at all. If a Sunni minority – the ruling al Khalifa family – sought to further provoke an angry Shia majority both in Bahrain and at home, then this was a good way to do it.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), made up of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, had only once before deployed troops under the terms of a regional pact aimed at protecting members from outside aggressors, and this was to protect Kuwait from Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War.
Donate to us: support independent, intelligent, in-depth Scottish journalism from just 3p a day
Now, however, the GCC “deployment” is aimed at stifling an internal “enemy”, the Bahraini Shia opposition, which has been clamouring for political reforms including, at least among some of the more extreme elements, the abolition of the monarchy. No wonder there are shudders in Riyadh. Unsurprisingly, the Bahraini opposition has denounced the GCC occupation as “a declaration of war”, for what can Bahraini civilians, armed only with clubs and knives and stones, do to confront Saudi forces? The United States, seen as a friend of the Khalifas and whose navy’s Fifth Fleet is stationed there, has expressed its concern and urged dialogue rather than confrontation between the Bahraini regime and the opposition – as well it might, for any temporary security Washington will have gained from the Saudi occupation will only dissipate with time. But Western fears are not unfounded: this is where we get our oil from, and there are fears Bahrain could become a pawn in a strategic struggle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. We know through Wikileaks that Saudi’s King Abdullah has urged the United States to “cut off the head of the snake” – to attack Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. The Tehran regime has its own problems, and has been flexing its muscles and stoking the fires of insurrection in other parts of the world, particularly since the invasion of Iraq made it easier to do so. Now the royal family fears that any concessions made by the neighbouring Bahraini royal family to the Shia minority there might serve to encourage a Shia uprising in oil-rich eastern Saudi Arabia. So Saudi Arabia appears to have drawn a line in the sand. But, as if Western diplomats were not already in a quandary over what to do with the burgeoning Arab revolutions, they have now being saddled with another headache. For consistency’s sake, how can a no-fly zone be imposed over Muammar al-Gaddafi’s Libya, as sought by the US and Britain, without strident condemnation of a Saudi military occupation, thinly disguised as a response to a request for help to restore order? It is true that great historical events require pragmatism and sometimes unpalatable compromise. That is what British leaders have said about the West’s recent and very odd rapprochement with Libya’s Gaddafi. Yet, once again abandoned as the despot he always was, in recent days Gaddafi has been making big strides in recovering lost territory. If they lose, the Libyan rebels know his retribution will be terrible. In the nationalist Gaddafi’s eyes, he is protecting a Libya shaped in his image. Saudi Arabia, close friend of the West for decades but no less cruel to its opponents, appears to be doing the same. Will the West turn a blind eye to Saudi aggression against the people of Bahrain, while condemning Gaddafi? “Aggression” may not be a word the West would wish to use – indeed, “deployment” seems to be de rigueur – but perception is what matters across the region, far from the great palaces of the royal tyrants, whose time will no doubt come.Donate to us: support independent, intelligent, in-depth Scottish journalism from just 3p a day
Related posts: