Research from Sheffield Hallam University suggests that cuts in the welfare budget will take more than £1.6bn out of the Scottish economy every year. The UK government argues that the cuts are needed to make the cost of welfare sustainable. But the report claims that the poorest parts of the country will be hit the hardest with the biggest financial losers coming from reform of the incapacity benefit system, valued at about £500m a year.
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Sheffield Hallam University Crest
Looking around the country, the researchers found that Glasgow would be the most affected, followed by Inverclyde, Dundee and West Dunbartonshire. The least affected would be Shetland, Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. According to the report, “The financial losses arising from the reforms will hit the most deprived parts of Scotland hardest. Glasgow in particular, but also a number of other older industrial areas, will feel the impact most. The loss of benefit income, which is often large, will have knock-on consequences for local spending and thus for local employment, which will in turn add a further twist to the downward spiral.”
Professor Steve Fothergill, one of the researchers, admitted that welfare reform was “a deeply contentious issue and in documenting the impacts, our report does not attempt to comment on the merits of the reforms. However, it is important that the impact on different places is fully exposed because this is a key dimension that is too often overlooked. The impact on different places is also one of the yardsticks by which the reforms should be judged.”
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Professor Steve Fothergill
The work was commissioned by the Scottish Parliament’s Welfare Reform Committee. Its convener, the Labour MSP Michael McMahon, described the findings as “dramatic”. He explained that the committee “wanted a detailed picture of what would happen on the ground when these reforms were fully implemented. It is obvious to all that the impact is dramatic – and more so in the areas that can least afford it.”
A spokesman for the Scottish government added that the researcher had “used the same publicly available data as the Scottish government analysis and reach broadly the same conclusions on the scale of the cuts. It is completely unacceptable that hard working people and vulnerable groups will bear the brunt of the UK government’s welfare cuts.”
However, a spokesman for the government in London pointed out that the welfare reforms, including reassessing people on Incapacity Benefit, would “help people back into work – which will benefit the economy more than simply abandoning them to claim benefits year after year. These changes are essential to keep the benefits bill sustainable, so that we can continue to support people when they need it most across the UK.”
