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The charity, Oxfam, has warned that a hotter world could be a hungrier world. It comes shortly before publication of the latest IPCC report. It believes that climate change will leave families caught in a vicious spiral of falling incomes, rising food prices, and declining quality of food, leading to a devastating impact on the health of millions. In its report, Growing Disruption, Oxfam offers its up-to-date assessment of the links between climate change and the many causes of hunger. While there is increasing awareness that climate change can harm crop production, the report shows that its threat on food security is much broader, hitting incomes, food quality and human health in ways that are not yet well understood.
It points out that one in eight people is already going hungry while demand for food is rising. However, it adds that climate change will not only reduce production, it will reduce the nutritional value of both crops and livestock, worsen human health and lead to higher prices. Climate change will mean that many more people will not be able to afford enough to eat and this toxic mix is likely to hit regions that are already more susceptible to food insecurity.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report is due to be published on on Friday. Final discussions between governments and scientists begin today in Stockholm. The IPCC is expected to confirm beyond doubt that climate change is not only happening, but that it is getting worse and that humans have caused the majority of it. As Tim Gore, Head of Policy for Oxfam’s GROW campaign explains, “Just as the evidence of man-made climate change is becoming stronger, so too is our understanding of how it hits people, especially around hunger. We’ve long known that climate change will mean lost crops, but increasingly we’re seeing its impacts through higher food prices, lower earnings, more health problems and lower quality food too.”
Oxfam has previously estimated that the average price of staple foods is likely to more than double in the next 20 years compared with 2010 trend prices – with up to half of the increase caused by climate change. The report highlights a number of factors which will make matters worse.
The floods in Pakistan in 2010 were devastating
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For example, last year’s drought in Russia cut the grain harvest by nearly 25 per cent, causing domestic prices of grain and bread to rocket. The cumulative effects of this plus the drought in 2010 have driven many farmers into significant debt. Then there was the devastating 2010 flood in Pakistan which destroyed over 570,000 hectares of crop land in Punjab and affected more than 20 million people. Eighty per cent of food reserves were lost. The destruction of crops and drowning of animals meant not only that people had nothing to eat, but that they had nothing to trade to be able to buy food as it became available. The flood caused a massive 75% reduction in income across all households affected.
Mr Gore added that “we want a world in which everyone enjoys the right to enough affordable and nutritious food, and we cannot allow climate change to throw us off course. Leaders listening to the latest findings from climate scientists this week must remember that a hot world is a hungry world. They must take urgent action to slash emissions and direct more resources to building a sustainable food system.”