“Money won is twice as sweet as money earned,” is the claim and, with that in mind, I took my winnings from Scotland’s victory over South Africa in the autumn and whacked a tenner of it back on Scotland again, this time to win the Six Nations.
A uselessly wasteful patriotic bet? Some would see it as such. Indeed I learned some time ago not to put money on Scotland for the Six Nations because I always ended up disappointed.
A good autumn would get hopes rising only for the team to dash them during the first 80 minutes of the spring. After handing too much easy money to the bookies over the years I decided to stop being so stupid.
So why change my mind this year? Five reasons: Andy Robinson, the fixture list, Scotland’s recent record, our Six Nations opponents and the team itself.
1. The Andy Robinson factor is straightforward. He is a really, really good coach. You only have to listen to what the players say about him. If, as seems generally accepted, the difference between winning and losing at elite sport is measured in millimetres, then it is vital to have a coach who can secure that extra advantage, that edge of analysis, of interpretation, of motivation. In Robinson, Scotland have one of the best in the game. Look what he did to Edinburgh during his short period in charge (success) and look at what happened to Edinburgh as soon as he left (failure). He has a gift and long may he stay at Murrayfield. 2. The fixture list is in Scotland’s favour. First, Scotland have three home games this season, all of which are eminently winnable. Four wins could be enough for the championship (as long as nobody else wins the Grand Slam) – so, if those three home games are won, all Scotland need to do is win one away match to be in the mix for the championship. 3. As for Scotland’s recent record, two wins out of three in the autumn (Samoa and South Africa), two from two in the summer away to Argentina and, in last year’s Six Nations, Scotland finished with a win, away in Dublin, drew with England and should have beaten Wales in that extraordinary, almost farcical game in Cardiff. That’s five wins out of the last six games, including three away wins. Now compare that to Wales’ recent record: played four won none in the autumn, played three lost three in the summer and played five won two (including that Scotland game) in last year’s Six Nations. 4. Wales haven’t won in their last seven games and will have to play very, very well to overcome England on Friday night. What about Ireland? They won two and lost two in the autumn but lost the three games before that, including their last game at Croke Park, against Scotland. It won’t be easy to beat Ireland and Wales at Murrayfield (or even Italy for that matter) but, given the recent track records of each of the sides, Scotland have a better chance this year than for many years. Indeed, anything less than three home wins will be a disappointment for this Scotland side. That leaves the two away games, starting with France in Paris this Saturday and then the mid-March game at Twickenham. Scotland do not have a good record at either venue. Scotland won in Paris in 1995 and 1999, on both occasions playing wonderful attacking rugby. But that is it. Two wins in Paris since the 1960s says it all. If anything, Scotland’s record at Twickenham is even worse. You have to go back to the days of Jim Calder and John Rutherford and Jim Renwick in 1983 for Scotland’s last triumph at English rugby headquarters. But, if you have to play the French at all, it is often best to get them at the start of a competition like the Six Nations because, if they have a fault, it is being slow starters. There is also a degree of arrogance (rightly so, one may say given their position as reigning Six Nations champions) about the French which suggests that they might take Scotland as seriously as they would, say, the English. So, if there is a chance of winning an away game this year, it is probably the first game, away in Paris on Saturday. If Scotland can scrape a win, the team can look forward to three home games – all of which are winnable – and a difficult away fixture at Twickenham. 5. It all comes down, then, to the players and the tactics. Robinson has decided that the France game will be won and lost up front, so he has picked a big, powerful forward pack. It is full of characters who will not be intimidated – players like Nathan Hines, Alan Jacobson, Al Kellock and Euan Murray. With Dan Parks playing at ten, the game plan is clear. The pack will look to dominate up front and Parks will play for position, kicking to the corners and keeping the ball in the French half. Only then, after five, six or seven phases, will the ball be spun to the backs. It is a sensible strategy for an away game, any away game in the Six Nations, and it shows that Robinson’s priority is to win, whatever it takes.The problem, as it has been for years, is Scotland’s inability to score tries. Even in defeat, the Welsh always seem to be able to score, but Scotland just can’t do it. There has been a feeling around the Scotland camp that the tries are there, that they will come as long as the team keep plugging away. With my tenner resting on it – I hope temporarily until it can be returned to me with several others - I really do believe that this would be as good a time as any to prove that theory correct. The coach is in place, the fixture list is in Scotland’s favour, our opponents are not as good as they have been and Scotland have a team to dominate up front. A uselessly wasted patriotic bet? Maybe aye: but maybe no...
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