Suddenly, Sri Lanka could be slight favourites in the cricket world cup

In the end, yesterday’s much-touted cricket world cup semi-final between India and Pakistan proved to be an engrossing encounter rather than a classic match. Before the start, India were reckoned to be the stronger of the two teams, but were facing opponents good enough – and over-achieving enough – to give them a decent game.

Visiting supporters had genuine hopes of winning, courtesy of either Indian nerves – due to the weight of expectation that comes from a nation of almost 1.2 billion people, a great many of them cricket-mad – or a perfect Pakistani day with a couple of their batsmen getting big scores and their fielders catching everything that came even remotely to hand. As it was, India certainly wobbled, but the Pakistan batsmen – and, particularly, their fielders – failed to fulfil their part of the bargain. Given that India had started with 350-plus in their sights, Pakistan would have felt happy with the half-time score. But the final margin of Indian victory, 29 runs, makes it sound closer than it actually was. In reality, Pakistan only briefly – and then not really – threatened to reach their target of 261.

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None of their top six batsmen completely failed – they all got in and got out – but only Misbah-ul-Haq reached 50, and he started too slowly, prompting a degree of flusterment amont his colleagues. A win only looked at all likely when Mohammad Hafeez was stroking an elegant 43 in the early part of the innings. Once he went, and once Umar Akmal (29 off 24 balls including two sixes) was bowled by Harbhajan Singh in the 34th over, just before the mandatory ball-change, the game was more or less up. That 208 for 9 stretched to 231 didn’t much matter: Pakistan were needing to score at 13 an over by that stage. So a dubious-looking score of 260 proved to be enough for India, just as the unpopular-with-the-fans decision to replace off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin (who had picked up vital wickets in the quarter-final against Australia) with paceman Ashish Nehra (who put in an economical spell of 2 for 33) didn’t cause any obvious problems. India started like the proverbial train, with Virender Sehwag – who, as an opener, is a combination of John Jameson, Roy Fredericks and then some – rattling up 38 off 25 balls. But once he fell – lbw to Wahab Riaz, who went on to take five for 46 – the innings started to drift. Pakistan pegged back the scoring rate, and had they shown more of an interest in dismissing an oddly scratchy Sachin Tendulkar (dropped four times in a less-than-godlike 85), then they could have left themselves a markedly more gettable target to chase. Watching all this with interest will have been Kumar Sangakkara and his Sri Lankan team, who await India in Saturday’s Mumbai final. And Sangakkara will not have been unduly perturbed by what he saw. From not-quite-favourite status throughout the tournament, Sri Lanka have steadily improved and now – courtesy of the calamity that befell South Africa in the quarter-final and the Indian waywardness yesterday – arguably find themselves as the likely winners. Their batting, all things considered, is the most heavyweight (and, crucially, the most in-form), while their bowling isn’t exactly shabby: Lasith “Slinger” Malinga is the most destructive paceman on display, while Ajantha Mendis remains a mystery spinner even though he’s now been around for several years. Ultimately, which country lifts the cup might come down to which of two great players has a bigger chunk of destiny on his side. Will Tendulkar do what has been discussed since day one of the tournament, and score his 100th international hundred on his home ground in the final? Or will Muttiah Muralitharan – most controversial and most successful bowler of his age – bow out with ten devastating overs? This will be the wild-eyed Murali’s last international match – and, although his skills might have waned, his desire to bamboozle batsmen is as strong as ever. If he nabs a five-wicket haul – or, more crucially, if he just picks up two cheap wickets and they happen to be named Tendulkar and Sehwag – then surely his team will prevail. It promises to be a fitting final – not necessarily close, but certainly enthralling, and very hard to predict. Sri Lanka might be the stronger all-round team, but India are only a fraction behind, and have home advantage. There will also be the oddity of seeing both teams captained by their respective wicketkeepers – Sangakkara and Mahendra Singh Dhoni. Meanwhile, a world away and almost unnoticed, the English domestic season has begun – not at Fenner’s in Cambridge or the Parks in Oxford as in days of yore, but in the decidedly modern-world surroundings of Abu Dhabi, where an MCC XI comfortably beat last year’s champion county, Nottinghamshire. They did this with not inconsiderable help from another of the Indian cricketing demigods, Rahul Dravid, who scored the only century of the match. Dravid’s days as a short-form player might be behind him – he has played in 339 one-dayers along with 150 tests – but there is little doubt where his thoughts will be focused on Saturday: the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai, where play is due to start at 10am BST.

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