“For the first time, Labour and the SNP will share more than 100 of the 129 seats on offer.” That was the private prediction made today by a senior figure in the SNP, who stressed that he didn’t think that meant both parties breaking the magic 50-seat barrier.
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Remember back to 2003? The Rainbow Parliament? There were seven Greens, six Scottish Socialists, three independents and one from the Senior Citizens Unity Party. That election was supposed to herald a breakthrough, it was supposed to signal the dawn of a new age in Scottish (and British) politics, brought about by proportional representation and a savvy electorate who understood how to use both votes to best effect. So what on earth has happened? Put simply, this election has polarised the electorate like never before. It has come about partly because both the main parties are locked in a fierce, tight battle and the electorate has responded to that – but it has also happened partly because the Liberal Democrat vote is collapsing due to the party’s travails in coalition with the Conservatives at Westminster. The likely result is this: Labour will take seats off the Lib Dems in the urban areas and the SNP will take seats off the Lib Dems in the rural areas. Two Lib Dem-held Highland seats – Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch – could easily fall to the SNP. The Borders seat of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale is also expected to go the SNP from the Lib Dems. But it doesn’t end there. The Nationalists appear to think there is potential in North East Fife, despite a notional Lib Dem majority of more than 4,500. Why else would Alex Salmond change his timetable at the last minute today to make a campaigning stop there? Then there are the urban areas. Labour believe they can unseat Lib Dems Mike Pringle in Edinburgh Southern and Margaret Smith in Edinburgh Western, again despite notional majorities of nearly 4,000 in both cases. There have even been whispers that the Lib Dems might be vulnerable, for the first time in a generation, in Orkney. It really is that bad for the Lib Dems – and it could get worse. Under the proportional system, the Lib Dems would normally expect to pick up seats on the regional lists for all those they lose in the constituencies, but their vote could drop even further on the second vote. The Greens could be the beneficiaries here, or the Lib Dem vote could be split between the party’s more traditional rivals. Either way, this election has turned into a straight fight between Labour and the SNP for Lib Dem votes and Lib Dem seats. After 5 May, the Scottish parliament will be a much more polarised place. Holyrood’s sweeping curve of pale wooden desks, designed to represent all shades of opinion, will look more out of place than ever before. Indeed, the adversarial House of Commons model would suit these two big parties better, whoever emerges on top. There is one proviso to consider, however. Holyrood’s electoral system was set up deliberately to stop any one party gaining an overall majority. So, even if both of the main parties break the magic 50 barrier for the first time, neither will be close enough to the 65-seat mark to govern with a majority of their own. The Rainbow Parliament may have long disappeared, but the smaller parties could still have a crucial role to play.Want to discuss other issues? Join the debate on our new Scottish Voices forum
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