The SNP is heading for victory in the Scottish elections – according to a major new opinion poll published this morning.
The YouGov poll in Scotland on Sunday shows that Alex Salmond is on course to be returned as first minister in charge of a new minority SNP administration on 5 May.
If the poll is carried through to results on polling day, the SNP would emerge victorious, condemning Labour to its second consecutive election defeat.
The poll was conducted at the end of last week, after the SNP manifesto launch and after Mr Salmond’s appearance on the BBC’s Question Time – both of which are thought to have helped boost the SNP’s popularity.
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In the YouGov poll, the SNP's constituency vote stays the same – at 40 per cent – as it was when YouGov last polled in Scotland two weeks ago. Over the same time, though, Labour has dropped two percentage points to 37 per cent. The Tories remain unchanged on 11 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats have increased their share of the vote by three points to 8 per cent. On the regional list vote, the SNP vote is up three percentage points to 35 per cent and Labour is down six points to 33 per cent. Meanwhile, the Tories remain steady on 12 per cent, the Liberal Democrats are up two points to 7 per cent and the Greens are on 6 per cent. Translated into seats, this would give the SNP 55 seats to Labour’s 49, with the Conservatives on 14, the Liberal Democrats on six and the Greens five. There was further good news for the Nationalists in response to YouGov questions as to who would make the best first minister. A massive 52 per cent of voters chose Mr Salmond as the best first minister, up from 48 per cent last time, while Labour leader Iain Gray’s rating slipped from 33 per cent to 27 per cent. SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "This is an excellent poll, confirming that the SNP have the big momentum in Scotland's election. We are working hard to win people's trust, and our positive message of record, team and vision for Scotland is being received extremely well in communities across the country. “The poll demonstrates the strength of the SNP's message of Alex Salmond for first minister, as we work to re-elect the Scottish government and continue our record of delivery for the people." But Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour deputy leader, said: “The SNP are taking voters for granted by declaring the result of the election before a single vote has been cast, but now the Tories are back (in Westminster), Labour will fight up until the wire for what really matters – jobs, fairness, getting Scots back to work. This poll shows there is all to fight for and the result is too close to call.” David McLetchie, for the Scottish Conservatives, said: “We know from the doorsteps of Scotland that people are warming to [party leader in Scotland] Annabel Goldie's message of common sense and telling it like it is.” A Liberal Democrat spokesperson said: “Pollsters predicted we wouldn't win the Dunfermline by-election, we wouldn't get an MEP and we'd lose half our MPs. They got it wrong every time. The only poll that counts is 5 May and Liberal Democrats are focused on campaigning on real issues that matter to Scotland – growing the economy, keeping services local and restoring excellence to education.” And a spokesman for the Greens said: “If this poll is right, there'll be a real boost to Green MSPs on 5 May, and a strong set of voices at Holyrood to oppose these cuts to public services.” The YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday was sampled from 13–15 April among 1,035 adults. The results (changes from last month’s YouGov/Scotsman poll, sampled from 25–28 March, in brackets): Constituency vote SNP: 40 per cent (no change) Lab: 37 per cent (-2) Con: 11 per cent (no change) Lib Dem: 8 per cent (+3) Other: 4 per cent Regional list vote SNP: 35 per cent (+3) Lab: 33 per cent (-6) Con: 12 per cent (no change) Lib Dem: 7 per cent (+2) Green: 6 per cent Other: 7 per cent Scottish parliament seats projection SNP: 55 Lab: 49 Con: 14 Lib Dem: 6 Green: 5 Best first minister Alex Salmond: 52 per cent (+4) Iain Gray: 27 per cent (-6) Choice between SNP and Labour to head next Scottish government SNP: 47 per cent (+3) Lab: 39 per cent (-3) Don't know: 14 per cent (+1)Want to discuss other issues? Join the debate on our new Scottish Voices forum
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