The Scottish finance secretary, John Swinney, was tonight closing in on victory after appearing to secure enough opposition support to get his budget through its crucial parliamentary vote tomorrow.
Mr Swinney has been in intensive negotiations with all the opposition parties in an attempt to secure the support he needs to get the budget passed.
However, unlike in previous years – when the Tories gave Mr Swinney the support he needed to get the budget through – this year it looks as though it will be the Liberal Democrats who will come on board at the last minute to get the budget passed.
In return for their support, the Liberal Democrats have demanded £14 million for college bursaries, more help for the young unemployed and action on top civil servants’ pay.
It appeared tonight as though Mr Swinney had all but conceded to the Lib Dem demand on student finance. Indeed, the National Union of Students put out a press release this afternoon praising the Lib Dems for securing the deal – even though no official deal had been agreed.
The Lib Dems insisted tonight they were still talking to Mr Swinney ahd had “one or two other demands” which they wanted Mr Swinney to agree to before signing up to support the budget.
But, from the buoyant and delighted attitude of senior Lib Dem MSPs in the parliamentary corridors, it appeared as if the Lib Dems had moved close enough to the Scottish Government for Mr Swinney to be confident of a deal.
Politically, a budget deal of this sort is crucial to the Lib Dems. They have suffered for months because of the student backlash to their national decision to back student fees in England.
This has damaged the party’s image, and not just with students.
Privately, the Scottish Lib Dems are desperate to have something to win the students back and get them onside before polling day in Scotland on 5 May.
If they can secure a major student funding deal from the Scottish Government, it will give the Lib Dems the chance to wave that achievement at the electorate in May in the hope of softening the ant-Lib Dem student vote, which has become increasingly strident in recent weeks.
However, Mr Swinney has not just been negotiating with the Lib Dems and his manoeuvring with both the Tories and Labour could bring even greater rewards tomorrow.
Mr Swinney appears to want to get the budget passed by an overwhelming majority. To that end, he has moved closer to the Tories – even though he may not need Tory support if, as expected, he gets the Lib Dems on side.
The Tories have been asking for public sector reform and a publicly generated boost for private sector employment.
According to senior Tory sources, the Scottish Government has moved “significantly” towards the Tory demands without, yet, going far enough to get the Tories on board. However, there is plenty of time tomorrow for Mr Swinney to move far enough to secure Tory support too.
At the very least, Mr Swinney may find he has done enough to ensure the Tories don’t vote against the budget, but simply abstain.
Likewise with Labour. Mr Swinney did not need to offer Labour anything because Labour leaders made it clear some time ago they were inclined to vote against the budget. But it is now understood that Mr Swinney has offered Labour some concessions. Labour had demanded a £40 million Scottish jobs fund and more money for apprenticeships.
It is understood that Mr Swinney may have gone half way towards Labour’s jobs fund and also found money for more apprenticeships.
If this is indeed what has happened, then it will place Labour in a difficult position.
Do Labour MSPs oppose the budget and, in doing so, oppose measures which would help jobseekers and young people and, in doing so, open themselves out to SNP criticism that they are only interested in partisan party politics?
Or, do they abstain and, in doing so, rob themselves of the clear division ahead of the election they were keen to establish between themselves and the SNP?
A lot can change in the next 24 hours before the vote but, as it stands tonight, Mr Swinney is inching towards yet another budget success, a success which looked difficult even last week.
He needs at least one of the opposition parties to support his budget (if Labour and the Greens vote against it).
The Lib Dems now look as if they will back the budget – if only to court their lost student vote before the election. The Tories may well abstain and Labour may abstain too.
If that happens, then Mr Swinney will secure his budget by a considerable margin.
But, as ever with budgets, “there is many a slip betwixt cup and lip”. The Lib Dems could decide to abstain, Labour vote against and the Tories abstain.
That would be enough to see the budget fall. Mr Swinney has not secured “closure” on the budget yet but the signs are that he may do so before the crucial vote tomorrow afternoon.
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