Momentum is everything in politics, and right now it’s with the SNP.
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In the regional list vote, the SNP is on 42 per cent, ten points ahead of Labour on 32 with the Conservatives on ten, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on six. Translated into seats, this would give the SNP 61 – four short of an overall majority – while Labour would be on 45, one fewer than it has now. The Conservatives would have slipped back to ten (from 17), the Liberal Democrats would be on nine (down seven) and the Greens would be on four (up two). Given that the Greens are also in favour of a referendum on independence, such an outcome could offer Mr Salmond the chance to secure the referendum at long last, either as part of a formal coalition with the Greens (which is unlikely) or a confidence-and-supply arrangement. But this does tend to highlight a strange twist of this election. It does appear from this and other polls that many Scots are voting on who they think is best placed to run the Scottish government. Mr Salmond has consistently scored far higher on this aspect of the campaign than Labour leader Iain Gray. Mr Salmond is seen as the best first minister to help Scotland weather the cuts being imposed by Westminster, and he is attracting votes from many people who don’t believe in independence. Because the SNP has already ruled for four years without threatening the breakup of the UK, many unionists feels safe voting SNP because they want Mr Salmond as first minister but know this will not necessarily lead to independence. Yet, because so many are now turning to the SNP, Mr Salmond may at last be able to secure the referendum on independence he is so desperate to hold. The Ipsos MORI poll suggests that the SNP got the timing right by holding its manifesto back until the campaign had been going for three weeks – not getting it launched so early, as the other parties did. It suggests that, in a campaign as long as this one, the momentum the SNP has generated fairly late on may be crucial, and it has raised serious questions about Labour’s reliance on TV debates to swing the campaign its way. Labour strategists knew that Mr Gray was always going suffer in a public-profile battle with Mr Salmond, but they were convinced that their man could do well in the TV debates and that that sort of exposure would be to their advantage. But what has happened is that we had one television debate at the start of the campaign and Mr Gray did not perform well. There has then been a three-week gap, during which time Mr Salmond has consolidated his lead over Mr Gray. Mr Gray may do well in the final TV debates, but so much time has elapsed since the first one that the gap might be too wide to make up by that stage. In another odd twist, however, a poll in today’s Scotsman suggests that voters oppose the "free education" pledge being promoted with such enthusiasm by three of the main parties. The SNP, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have all promised students that they will not have to pay any tuition fees or any sort of graduate contribution towards the cost of their degrees, despite evidence of a sizeable funding gap between universities north and south of the border and despite warnings from university leaders that such a policy is unsustainable. Only the Tories have insisted that graduates must pay something. Now, it seems, the voting population agrees, largely, with the Tory position. The YouGov poll found that a solid 65 per cent of adults supported the idea that students should make some sort of financial contribution. Broken down by party, researchers found that 66 per cent of SNP voters felt students should make a contribution, as did 56 per cent of Labour voters and 70 per cent of Lib Dem voters. With the huge rise in support for the SNP and Mr Salmond’s bid to be returned as first minister and this poll showing that most people oppose a central policy plank held by three of the main parties, it perhaps shows that most Scots vote on gut instinct. They will support the person or party they believe is doing the best job or is capable of doing the best job in charge of the country, and are not too bothered by the minutiae of policy – even when it comes to such central issues as a referendum on independence. Reacting to the Times poll, SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said: “This is an excellent poll, and confirms that more and more people are considering voting SNP – many for the first time – because they want to re-elect the SNP government and Alex Salmond for first minister. “We are taking nothing for granted, and will contest the remaining two weeks of the campaign as a close two-horse race. “We will continue working hard to earn the trust and support of the people for the SNP's record, team and vision for Scotland.” And, in response to the Scotsman poll on higher education, Conservative campaign manager David McLetchie said: “In a perfect world everything would be free. But in the real world, voters accept that the costs have to be spread.”Want to discuss other issues? Join the debate on our new Scottish Voices forum
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