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By James Browne Ding dong, the witch is dead. And now the difficult questions begin. But first, given my critical view of US foreign policy, my belief in the sanctity of human life and commitment to due process, let me say this about the killing of Osama bin Laden: America, fuck yeah! 1) Will it actually change anything? While the death of the bogeyman gives most of us a slightly guilty bounce in our step, the sad fact is that it probably won’t do much damage to al-Qaeda. Its power lies in the fact it’s a distributed network without central organisation. 2) Pakistan I started to write that "the tall one" was found hidden in a secret compound called “Osama bin Laden Towers” at No 1 Osama Bin Laden Street, in the Al-Qaeda Boss district of Islamabad. But then I gave up because his location was beyond satire. The most hunted man in the world, hunted too by the Pakistan intelligence services, was living in a huge compound 800 yards from Pakistan’s equivalent of Sandhurst. And nobody in Pakistan's military and intelligence services knew? Oh sure. They’re our committed friends in the battle against terror, and no mistake... 3) Israel and Palestine The running sore of the Palestinian conflict fuels the evil of bin Laden and his ilk. Islamic terrorism will not be defeated until there is a just, two-state solution that addresses the grievances of the Palestinians and the security concerns of the Israelis. Former senior CIA analyst Bruce Riedel, who has advised three US presidents, advocates that Washington aggressively “puts down its own map of a two-state solution” to put an end to the huge price in blood being paid for the conflict in the Holy Land. He’s right and the death of OBL presents a huge opportunity. 4) Intel and technology Osama bin Laden was killed by troops on the ground after very hard work based on human intelligence. After 9/11, the US especially learned painful lessons about the limitations of electronic surveillance, lessons which were underlined by the fact that OBL had no phone or internet connection. In Afghanistan, the further limitations of air power are clear. Wars are won by soldiers guided by reliable information. This has enormous implications for defence policy - or “cuts”, as we'll call it. 5) Arab revolutions How will the death of bin Laden affect attitudes in the Arab world? The situation in these states is finely balanced as they struggle to emerge from (often Western-backed) repression. While Americans are dancing in the streets celebrating the death of the bogeyman, we may well be repeating Iraqi and Afghani history by getting embroiled in an open-ended vague war in Libya. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were recruiting gifts to al-Qaeda. Will Libya be the same? 6) Nutjob conspiracy theories Get ready for the unedifying sight of Donald Trump and Ayman al-Zawahiri racing to “prove” that OBL is not dead and that Obama ("sounds like Osama") faked the death at the same time as he faked his own birth certificate. 7) Theological implications And finally, it is impossible to to pierce the cloud of unknowing, but one has to assume that OBL will be facing some very pointed questions from the Merciful and the Compassionate over his murder of innocents of all races, creeds and colours in the name of an unrecognisably twisted version of Islam...Please donate to The Caledonian Mercury: just 3p a day
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