It shouldn’t really come as any surprise that Twickenham is an 82,000 sell-out for tomorrow’s game against Wales, while Murrayfield will do well to get 30,000 in through the turnstiles for the visit of Ireland. After all, London is at least ten times the size of Edinburgh, as is its rugby-watching population.
But it does highlight the increasing gap in resources, standing and clout between the RFU and the SRU. If Scottish rugby can’t do anything about that – and it can’t, at least for the foreseeable future - then at least it has a chance to close the gap on the pitch before England and Scotland meet in the Rugby World Cup next month. To do that, Scotland need to start with a victory over Ireland tomorrow.
On paper, Scotland have the stronger team. The Scottish XV includes probably nine or ten of Andy Robinson’s first-choice side, while Ireland have just three or four first-pick starters playing.
But therein lies the danger. Scotland are at home, Scotland have picked a first XV in all but a few places and Ireland have not. If Scotland don’t win, serious questions will have to be asked about the squad’s preparation for the World Cup and its chances in that tournament.
Robinson has chosen to have just two warm-up matches ahead of the New Zealand tournament: this weekend’s fixture against Ireland and another home match, against Italy, later this month.
Ireland, meanwhile, have arranged five warm-up games – hence their decision to start slowly and blood some newcomers in these early exchanges before narrowing down their Test team nearer to the tournament itself.
Robinson’s approach could prove to be the best one. His players may arrive in New Zealand fresher, carrying fewer injuries and in a better mental and physical state than some of their European rivals.
But it is also very risky. If Scotland lose tomorrow and/or again against Italy, Robinson won’t have the chance to fine-tune his selections ahead of the World Cup.
There is also likely to be a considerable amount of rust on show at Murrayfield tomorrow – spilt passes, knock-ons, over-runs, missed throw-ins and so on. That is inevitable given the gap between the end of the regular season and these summer Tests.
Can Scotland work that rust out of their game in just two matches? Maybe the players can, maybe Robinson has got this right and his players will peak, both in playing and in physical terms, just when they hit the Land of the Long White Cloud.
Maybe the Irish will be burnt out by then, having played those five warm-up matches. It is difficult to say this far out. All that we do know is that Robinson has experience of this situation. He got it right with England in 2003, so there is no reason to doubt him this time – as long as Scotland win tomorrow.
As for the team he has picked for tomorrow’s match, it gives a pretty good indication of his thinking ahead of the World Cup.
The Edinburgh front row of Alan Jacobsen, Ross Ford and Geoff Cross performed well as a unit towards the end of last season and may be given the chance to do the same in the World Cup – particularly as one (and possibly two) important Scotland games will take place on Sundays, which places a big question-mark over tighthead Euan Murray’s participation in the event at all.
Gloucester lock Jim Hamilton is being given a run in the second row with Richie Gray, but Robinson’s favoured locks are still probably the Glasgow duo of Gray and Al Kellock, the combination that did so well against England’s line-out at Twickenham this year.
Tomorrow’s back row of Al Strokosh, Ross Rennie and Johnnie Beattie does look experimental. All three can probably expect to travel to New Zealand but none are quite the first-rate picks they would like to be. Kelly Brown and John Barclay are still the first choice flankers – and, while Beattie is certainly up there as the coach’s favoured number eight, he faces a tough battle from newcomer David Denton and Richie Vernon.
Behind the scrum, the half-backs Rory Lawson and Ruaridh Jackson could cement their positions as first choices. Graeme Morrison was the first-choice inside centre before his injury and could regain that position if he has a solid game tomorrow.
Jo Ansbro has been vying with Max Evans at outside centre and a good game tomorrow could see Evans back on the wing and Ansbro secure at 13. Chris Paterson did so well at full back in the Six Nations that he must surely start there in New Zealand, as did Sean Lamont on one wing.
Nikki Walker is lucky to get a start on the other wing and must show a better defence than he has done for some time to get himself back into the starting XV for the World Cup.
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