As the successful 30 players chosen by Andy Robinson to represent Scotland look out their passports today, Glasgow’s Johnnie Beattie will be heading back to his club devastated that, like his famous rugby-playing father, he too has missed out on a chance to compete in a World Cup in New Zealand.
Robinson has explained his decision to leave Beattie behind by arguing that the 25-year-old number eight was not as consistent as his rivals – and, although hugely talented, Beattie needed to improve his all-round game.
That may indeed be true but, in one sense at least, Beattie’s chances of going to New Zealand were made much tougher than they perhaps should have been by prop Euan Murray’s insistence that he will not play on Sundays.
Murray is one of Scotland’s standout scrummagers and Robinson did not want to do without him in what will be tough forward battles against some of the best packs on earth: from England, Georgia, Romania and Argentina.
But, because he won’t play on Sundays, Murray has already ruled himself out of the game against Argentina (on Sunday 25 September) and the potential quarter-final on Sunday 9 October, if Scotland come second in their pool.
As a result, Robinson decided he would be leaving himself with inadequate cover for this position if he took only two tightheads: so he has taken three – Murray, Geoff Cross and Moray Low.
With only 17 forwards travelling to New Zealand and three covering just one position, this left Robinson with no option but to take only five back-row forwards to cover three positions – and, in that mix, only one specialist number eight.
This meant Beattie had to fight it out with Richie Vernon for the sole number eight slot, and Vernon got it courtesy of his speed around the park.
Scotland could really do with Murray in New Zealand, but his decision to opt out of Sunday matches has put added pressure on the rest of the squad. Yes, Robinson has more than enough cover at tighthead, but now he only has one proper number eight and only five back-rowers.
What happens in Vernon goes down injured in the first minute of the first game? Scotland do now look a bit threadbare at the base of the scrum.
It is true that Al Strokosch can fill in at number eight and Nathan Hines can deputise at six, but a team with those two in place will resemble something of a patchwork, make-do-and-mend side – not one that is fully balanced, which Scotland will need to be to defeat either Argentina or England.
Surely it would have been better to have selected just two tighthead props and, given Murray’s stance, perhaps Robinson should have left Murray behind (however good a scrummager he is) and taken Cross and Low. Or, if Murray is too important to be left at home, then Robinson should have taken him and Cross and told Murray he would be playing every minute of every game that does not fall on a Sunday.
However, that imbalance between the number three and number eight shirts is probably the only glitsch in Robinson’s squad.
The coach does have the satisfaction of knowing that he has lost fewer players to injury than any of his near European rivals – so perhaps his two-game warm-up agenda was the right one.
Only Nikki Walker can feel himself to be unlucky, having gone down injured in the final three minutes of the Italy game last Saturday and, as a result, missing the flight to New Zealand.
Walker has not always been Scotland’s most consistent performer, particularly in defence, but he has been running good lines recently and he is very powerful. It seems likely that he would have travelled, if fit, and his loss will be felt by the team in New Zealand – if only because his replacement is Simon Danielli who, if anything, is even more inconsistent than Walker.
Danielli has an eye for the try-line, which is good, but often fixes both eyes on it to the exclusion of all else, including supporting players. He has also been guilty in the past of rushing out for glory-seeking interceptions and missing the ball, allowing the opposition a free run to the Scotland line in his absence.
But Danielli will not be one of Robinson’s first-choice starters – so, while he may get a run out against Romania, Georgia or both, he is unlikely to start against England or Argentina unless injuries intervene.
As for that starting XV for those two final crunch games, it looks now as it Robinson’s first-choice team will look something like this: 1 Allan Jacobsen, 2 Ross Ford, 3 Euan Murray, 4 Richie Gray, 5 Al Kellock, 6 Kelly Brown, 7 John Barclay, 8 Richie Vernon, 9 Chris Cusiter, 10 Ruaridh Jackson, 11 Max Evans, 12 Graeme Morrison, 13 Nick De Luca, 14 Sean Lamont, 15 Chris Paterson. Subs: Geoff Cross, Dougie Hall, Nathan Hines, Ross Rennie, Mike Blair, Dan Parks, Joe Ansbro.
Although, with two-and-a-half weeks to go until Scotland’s first game against Georgia on 10 September, both Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have a chance to force themselves into the starting lineup, as does Joe Ansbro.
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