Political punters appear to be ignoring Lord Forsyth and backing Sir Malcolm Rifkind in the great debate over the future of the Scottish Conservatives.
Bookmakers Ladbrokes report “significant” money being wagered on Murdo Fraser and his radical plan to disband the Scottish Conservative Party and create something new in its place, a plan that is opposed by Lord Forsyth but supported (at least in part) by Sir Malcolm.
Ladbrokes reported today that, almost instantly after betting began, Mr Fraser attracted some large wagers and is responsible for almost all the turnover in the market to date.
They also reported that no money has been wagered on Ruth Davidson, Mr Fraser’s closest challenger, while Jackson Carlaw, the outsider, has seen some – limited – interest.
As a result, the odds on Mr Fraser winning the Scottish Tory leadership have come in to 8/11, with Mr Carlaw a 5/2 chance and Ms Davidson out at 11/4.
“The market is still young," said Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes, "but we've seen some smart money for Fraser. Early trade suggests he's got one foot in the door whilst Davidson looks set to struggle.”
The CalMerc diary believes, however, that Ms Davidson could be the smart bet. Mr Fraser is the early favourite but he has to convince the 8,500 Tory members in Scotland to back his radical move – and they are, well, very conservative.
If they want another option, Ms Davidson, as the young, leadership-backed candidate, looks to have more of a chance than Mr Carlaw.
Ladbrokes latest betting for the next leader of the Scottish Conservatives – Murdo Fraser - 8/11 Jackson Carlaw - 5/2 Ruth Davidson - 11/4
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