With two games in five days – and the second one likely to be the harder of the two – Andy Robinson might have been tempted to give his second XV a run-out for Scotland’s opening Rugby World Cup fixture against Romania in Invercargill on Saturday.
But no. The Scotland coach has opted for (pretty much) his first-choice pack and probably five out of seven of his first-pick backs, too.
It is easy to see why. Romania should represent a comfortable win for Scotland, but it would be a calamity to lose this first match and Scotland have not exactly been good at putting away the minnows in previous World Cups – hence the almost full-strength team.
There are confusing aspects to it, though. Given that Euan Murray’s faith prevents him from playing against Argentina (because the game is on a Sunday), why is he being rested for the Romania game?
Surely the best thing would have been to have used Murray against Romania and again against Georgia on Wednesday, and then given him a long rest before the last pool game, against England?
As it is, Geoff Cross is starting at tighthead against Romania and Murray looks certain to start against Georgia. Apart from that, the rest of the pack represents Robinson’s first-choice scrum.
This is again slightly concerning, given that the Georgia game comes just four days later and, boasting a bigger and better pack than Romania, Georgia will represent a more hostile physical challenge to Scotland than will the Romanians.
Will Robinson’s first-choice pack have recovered in time to compete with the Georgians, or does Robinson use second XV players for that one?
Behind the scrum, Robinson has decided to play four wingers – two of them out of position. Max Evans and Simon Danielli take the wing berths, but Joe Ansbro is at outside centre and Sean Lamont is at inside centre.
Lamont is probably Scotland’s best winger at the moment, but everyone knows his distribution isn’t the greatest. He is great at attacking space and opposing players – but, at 12, he needs to release the ball too. Can he do it? We shall have to see.
As a result, the team looks oddly balanced. It has a solid scrum – probably the best Scotland can put out with the exception of Murray – and although many of Scotland's best backs have been picked, some are out of position, which makes it look uneasy.
It suggests that some of the forwards will have to play against Romania and Georgia within five days while the back line against Georgia will probably be more settled and stable: probably Lawson, Parks, Evans, Morrison, De Luca, Lamont, Lamont.
Robinson must be hoping that Scotland sweep into an early lead against Romania, allowing him to take off as many of his players as possible as early as possible and use all his substitutes, giving seven of the starting XV more time to recuperate for the Georgia game.
However, given that Scotland have struggled against teams like Romania for years and years, that is probably wishful thinking.
The most likely outcome, given past form, is that Scotland will struggle to subdue the Romanians for most of the game and will only pull ahead to record a relatively comfortable victory in the final quarter. And, if the game is tight after 60 minutes, Robinson will be reluctant to take his starting XV off, just so he can make sure of victory.
That, though, is the most important thing. Scotland need to win on Saturday. A comfortable, non-injury, all-subs-used victory with plenty of tries would be ideal, but the win is paramount.
The same again against Georgia would be even better, particularly given the way the Georgians took the game to Ireland in 2007, only going down 14–10 and unluckily as well given the way the Georgians battered the Irish line for the final 15 minutes.
Robinson will be well aware of the threat the Georgians pose and that they are better now than they were in 2007. Scotland also face the unfortunate but unpalatable truth that teams like Romania and Georgia will target the Scotland game as the one against top-ranked opposition that they stand most chance of winning – so it will not be easy.
But, if Scotland can emerge from week one with two wins, no serious injuries and a few tries, then that should be cheered. Anything less and the World Cup campaign will suddenly become very desperate indeed.
Every rugby fan in the world wants to see an upset in the first rounds of game, but none wants their own side to be the victim. Scotland have managed to avoid such disasters at every World Cup so far – having never lost to opponents ranked below them in a World Cup – and this would be a very good time to keep that record going.
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