By Andrew Macdonell in South Africa
Free and fair elections have been the exception rather than the rule in much of Africa, but this week’s election in Zambia offers hope that democracy may be starting to put down firm roots in this part of the world.
Tomorrow – Tuesday, 20 September – Zambians go to the polls to elect a president for the fifth time since multi-party democracy was re-established in 1991. The 2011 election is essentially a contest between the incumbent president Rupiah Banda and Michael Sata – who, as his nickname of “King Cobra” suggests, is a tough populist politician from the “take no prisoners” school of politics.
Unusually for an African election, the result appears to be too close to call, with different opinion polls suggesting leads for both of the main contenders.
As the incumbent, President Banda and the Movement of Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) start in pole position, but a number of senior defections and the death of former President Chiluba in June this year have been big blows to the party.
The main opposition challenger, Michael Sata, and his Patriotic Front (PF), are popular in the mineral-rich Copperbelt and will be looking to build on their strong showing in 2008. In that election, which was precipitated by the death in office of President Mwanawasa, Sata lost to Banda by only 35,000 votes or by a margin of 2 per cent. While the subsequent disbanding of the opposition alliance between the PF and the United Party for National Development (UPND) will have cost him support, he remains a strong contender.
Unlike the PF, which is very much made in Sata’s image, Rupiah Banda follows in the footsteps of Frederick Chiluba (1991–2002) and Levy Mwanawasa (2002–08) as the third Zambian president to lead the MMD.
There is clearly no love lost between the two candidates, and the sparring between the two has become increasingly personal. Sata has questioned Banda’s nationality and hence his eligibility to be president, while Banda has been quoted as saying:
“Sata likes to call himself 'the cobra'. I never trust a creature that slithers on its stomach. Would you trust a snake? I warn all Zambians: if you play with the cobra, expect to be bitten. But that is democracy for you. Everybody has a right to stand, even Michael Sata.”
The election is being held against the backdrop of a struggling economy and widespread poverty. The global economic downturn and the fall in commodity prices has hit Zambia’s copper-based economy hard. The truth, however, is that most Zambians have been living below the poverty line for years and little of any recent economic growth has trickled down to them. Zambia lies 150th out of the 169 countries surveyed by the United Nations Human Development Index, and an estimated 64 per cent of Zambians live below the poverty line.
While unemployment, poor infrastructure and government corruption are key election issues, it is Chinese investment in Zambia that has taken centre stage. Trade exchanges between the two countries have almost doubled since 2009, to $2.8 billion last year, and the Chinese are behind numerous investment schemes such as a new $2 billion hydroelectric plant at Kafue Gorge.
President Banda has enthusiastically welcomed this foreign investment. However, not all Zambians are so happy and many question the tax concessions that the Chinese have been granted and the conditions of employment at their plants. Sata has tapped into this unease and has taken a much more populist approach on the Chinese question by calling for the stricter enforcement of regulations regarding the wages paid by foreign investors. Sata’s stance has lead to accusations that he is “anti-Chinese”, something he denies while at the same time saying that he is merely protecting the lot of normal Zambians.
But this election has not been all about the two main contenders or even about China.
One of the most colourful and controversial characters in the campaign has been Dora Siliya, a former broadcaster and the MMD spokesperson. Her campaign speeches are evidently littered with bawdy sexual innuendo and homophobic outbursts.
At one campaign stop, she was accused of handing out pictures of two men kissing to make her point against homosexuality – while the Post newspaper has reported that at another campaign rally she encouraged the men present to admire her soft buttocks.
“You men here, are you not admiring me?” she was quoted as asking. “Are you admiring each other's beards? You women, can you get pregnant from a fellow woman? Isn't that the end of the world? You men can you enjoy touching each other's hard bums instead of a woman's?”
The men in the crowd evidently replied in unison: “We admire a lot, especially your buttocks!”
It is, however, a measure of the morally conservative nature of Zambian society that Siliya’s homophobic comments are overwhelmingly supported and that it is political suicide to be defined as a supporter of gay rights.
At first, Sata did condemn Siliya for distributing "pornographic pictures" of the two men. However, when he started to be characterised as a supporter of homosexuality, felt compelled to deny that he in any way supports gay rights.
“Police should arrest the two men in Siliya’s picture”, Sata now says.
Intolerance aside, Zambians have every reason to be proud of their young democracy. Free and peaceful elections now appear to be the norm, and this Tuesday’s poll is expected to pass without serious incident.
Whether the incumbent or the “cobra” is elected president, it is hoped that all accept the verdict gracefully so that Zambian democracy can be the real winner.
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