What do these figures mean: 22, 20, 20, 20, 12, 15 and 4? They are the number of tries Scotland have scored at successive Rugby World Cups, starting with 1987 and ending with 2011.
Apart from the blip in 2007 – when Scotland played their relatively easy pool games at Murrayfield – the trend has been relentlessly downwards.
However, the figure of 20 for the 1991 World Cup is particularly instructive because that year Scotland topped the try-scoring league, beating New Zealand’s 19-try effort into second place.
That’s worth repeating given what has happened this year: in 1991, according to the official RWC website, Scotland topped the try-scoring league with 20 tries in the world cup. At that same competition, Scotland’s semi-final opponents England scored just 11 tries, with Wales touching down just three times in the whole competition.
Wales failed to get out of the group stages in 1991 – and, 20 years later, Scotland have followed that same, well-worn and depressing path.
OK, that’s the problem – but what’s the solution? Once again, the Welsh have shown the way.
The answer, at least in part, is Mark Bennett. The Ayrshire teenager will not solve Scotland’s whitewash fever on his own, but his story is a salutary lesson for the failings in Scottish rugby.
The 18-year-old is, without doubt, the best centre Scotland has produced since Alan Tait. He shone at the Junior World Championship in June. He is strong and hard in the tackle, he has pace, a good step and a very good pass – oh, and he has been snapped up by the top French side Clermont Auvergne.
Bringing Bennett into the side would not have turned Scotland into world-beaters, but it would have shown a willingness to take chances with exciting young players, an attitude Scotland still don’t seem to want to adopt.
Look at the current Welsh side which has burned its way into the quarter-finals by destroying Fiji. A third of the 30-man squad is aged 23 or under. New star centre Scott Williams is 21, wing sensation George North is still a teenager, there are two 21-year-old scrum-halves in the squad – while Leigh Halfpenny, who seems to have been around forever, is still only 22.
In Wales, they really do believe that, if you good enough you are old enough.
In Scotland, we seem frightened to experiment with youngsters in case they get destroyed by the experience of playing Test rugby – but, being cautious and adopting a safety-first approach just isn’t working.
The Scotland team were combative at the Rugby World Cup, the pack was great, but the real rub came in a reported comment from the member of the coaching staff of another team there. “We know Scotland will play with real passion," he said, "but they are easy to defend against.”
And that’s the nub of it. Unless and until we can find real game-breakers, Scotland will not challenge either the main rugby nations or the try-line.
Bennett might have struggled with the pace at the Rugby World Cup, but we’ll never know because he wasn’t even considered for the squad, let alone considered for a starting spot.
Andy Robinson has a solid scrum, but he has to find better backs. As a result, he should bring Bennett into the squad now.
Robinson should also bring in Glasgow’s Duncan Weir to challenge Ruaridh Jackson for the fly-half’s role (it is simply mind-boggling that our two best fly-halves are competing for game time in the same pro team, but that’s another story).
Some experts believe Jackson is the better of the two, while others believe Weir has more to offer. What is certain is that Weir has the attitude of a winner. He has style, guts and can score cracking tries as well as land penalties from within his own half – and he is only 20.
He appears to be another youngster who the SRU and Robinson believe is not old enough – but had he been Welsh…
Our current favoured number 12, Graeme Morrison, has been a great servant to Scottish rugby and a defensive rock, but he is easy to defend against, he does make mistakes and his passing – by international standards – is ordinary.
When he finally got exasperated at Morrison’s failure to release the Scots back-line, Robinson had no option but to turn to a winger, Sean Lamont, in the hope of producing some momentum. Lamont will run all day for Scotland, but delivering the perfectly weighted pass to his outside runners is not his forté.
Robinson had no option because he didn’t really have another number 12 in the squad. Bennett could have been that man.
Up front, Robinson should keep the bulk of his pack – but perhaps bring in Rob Harley and David Denton to add bite to the back row – and he must start building his backs around some of these promising youngsters.
Brian O’Driscoll, possibly the best centre ever to have played the game, was capped at 20 by Ireland – much the same age as Bennett is now.
Bennett may or may not end up being half as good (or better) than O’Driscoll, but why wait? The Rugby World Cup is over for Scotland. The team were home before the quarter-finals for the first time.
We should learn from our Celtic cousins – and, when we find really good youngsters, we should not be frightened of blooding them in the Test arena.
The back line I would like see play for Scotland in the Six Nations would be: Chris Cusiter and Weir at half-backs, Bennett and Joe Ansbro in the centres, Max Evans and Tim Visser (if he has qualified for Scotland in time) on the wings, and Rory Lamont at full-back.
Just think back to those historic victories recorded by Robinson’s team, the very victories which have been used as a justification this week by some to insist that Scotland are, really, a good rugby side.
But what happened in those games? Yes, Scotland beat Australia in 2009 – and how many tries to the team score? None. Yes, Scotland beat South Africa in 2010 – and how many tries did they score? None.
It was the same in the defeats of England in 2006 and 2008 and the draw in 2010. All of Scotland’s points came from the boot.
The message is simple. Scotland can secure the odd, low-scoring victory over (almost) anyone in the world on those rare occasions when they can rack up more penalties and dropped goals than the opposition can score tries, but they will never be consistent, they will never be a real threat, until they can score tries.
The current crop can’t do it, so Andy Robinson, give some of our youngsters a turn – but don’t, please, coach all that youthful spark and creativity out of them while you’re doing it.
The final lesson from Wales is that this downward cycle does not have to be terminal. The Welsh scored only three tries and were dumped out of the 1991 World Cup at the pool stages.
Scotland have suffered the same fate 20 years later. But look where Wales are now, preparing for an eminently winnable quarter-final against Ireland with a youthful team playing exciting rugby. Indeed, this young team are only two games away from a world cup final appearance – if things go their way.
Let’s applaud the Welsh attitude in trusting in youth and do the same. It really is the only way out of this mess.
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