By Stuart Crawford
Anyone seeking confirmation of the imminent demise of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party need look no further than last week’s leadership election. By favouring Ruth Davidson and her election mantra of “more of the same, only better”, the party faithful have shown quite clearly how completely out of touch they are with mainstream Scottish political thought.
Leave aside for the moment the pathetically low voter turnout – only 65 per cent of the membership – and the equally pathetic low number of party members, 8,500 or thereabouts. What those 3,000 or so poor benighted souls who did vote for Ms Davidson have decided is either that they consider her to be a serious contender for first minister and/or worthy opponent for Alex Salmond – both laughable notions – or that Murdo Fraser had to be kept from reforming their party at any cost.
Whatever the reason, they have done their party a disservice. All recent leadership elections for any of Britain’s political parties have demonstrated a basic inability to recognise what members are voting for: it’s not about what they or the party wants, it’s about what the wider electorate might find attractive enough to vote for. The Scottish Conservatives have just fallen into the same trap as the UK Labour Party did not so long ago – by, essentially, electing a leader who is unelectable.
Ms Davidson seems a nice enough person, confident and energetic and all that, and it’s not really her fault. But pledging to lead a failing political party on the basis of doing exactly the same things that have previously led to electoral disaster north of the border is a bit like ordering a second Charge of the Light Brigade. As a general rule, reinforcing failure leads to repeat failure.
It also means that those former Tory voters who voted SNP in May as the least-worst option to keep Labour out still have nowhere to go. I was astonished at some of the people I know who voted for the SNP last time around – bankers, lawyers, doctors – many of whom seemed to me to be natural Tory supporters. When I asked why they voted otherwise, the answer was always the same: because a vote for the Tories would be a wasted one.
Who will they vote for next time around? If only there were a centre-right party not thirled to the preservation of the status quo and in favour of, or at least relaxed about, the prospect of “independence” (whatever that means these days), then it might be seen as an option. As I have said oftentimes before, there is not much between any of the parties on their visions of independence-lite or devo-max, and even the SNP may be forced to compromise unless it can quickly persuade the electorate of the benefits of Scottish sovereignty.
If a new centre-right party were to undermine the ruling party’s unique selling point by coming out for independence too, who knows what might happen? All the bets are off if independence becomes a common cause of left and right.
Who would found, organise and lead such a pro-independence centre-right party? Well, I don’t know how firmly Murdo Fraser’s personal unionist flag is nailed to the mast, but at least he was heading in the right direction with his vision for disbanding the Scottish Conservatives and rebuilding a new consensus on the right. While his vision was still essentially a unionist one, it may be that closer examination of the new Scottish realpolitik might persuade him to soften his constitutional position.
Mr Fraser has, as convention expects, pledged to support Ms Davidson in her new role in the immediate aftermath of his leadership rebuff. To do otherwise would have been ungracious and churlish. But being faced with the prospect of being both the defeated leadership contender and being led by a relatively young and inexperienced political arriviste might not prove to be to his liking in the longer term. There is clearly scope for Mr Fraser, on mature reflection, to leave the becalmed ship and hoist his flag on a new vessel.
Whether those MSPs and party members who supported his leadership bid would be true to their convictions and follow him is another thing entirely. In this modern age, career politicians are not noted for their moral courage. The alternative, though, is a lifetime in the political wilderness, and some may prefer at least an attempt to play a more prominent role in the country’s future.
There’s the conundrum, then. The party that has failed re-enters the fray with the promise of more of the same. Meanwhile, a large part of the Scottish electorate has no representation and is effectively disenfranchised. And half the Scottish Conservatives backed a leader other than the one who has been elected. If you excuse the mixed metaphors, who will grasp the nettle and cut this Gordian knot?
As for the Scottish Conservative Party, “This is the end, my only friend, the end.”
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