SCOTLAND’S EXPORTS: FASTER GROWTH THAN THE UK

Grangemouth Refinery
© Copyright M J Richardson – licensed for reuse under Creative CommonsA report from the accountancy firm EY (formerly Ernst & Young) has claimed that Scottish exports could grow faster than the rest of the UK. Looking at the next four years, the report suggests that exports could rise by 2% a year over the period. By contrast, the UK as a whole would see growth of just 0.3% and growth in Europe is expected to reach 1%. But Scotland needs to change its focus if this forecast is to be realised. For example, although sales to the US and Germany are still expected to grow, those to France, until now Scotland’s second biggest export market, are forecast to fall. It suggests that new markets Australia, Latvia and Venezuela should be targeted.

A number of key sectors would count for most of this performance. For example, it expects the chemicals industry in Scotland — mainly from Grangemouth — to show a significant increase in exports. Engineering and aerospace were two more target sectors, along with whisky which was expected to maintain its consistent growth pattern. The firm added that next year’s Commonwealth Games in Glasgow would be an important showcase for key industries.

Jim Bishop, EY’s senior partner in Scotland, said it was “stunning to consider that the Commonwealth makes up 30% of the world. That incorporates a couple of billion people in some of the fastest growing economies where Scotland is exporting. Any increase in exports must be taken as a positive, but Scotland’s goods exporters must move away from a reliance on western trading partners and tap into rapid growth trade corridors where there great demand for what we do best. Harnessing that appetite will help underpin the recovery of our largely services-based economy.”

Responding to the report, Anne MacColl, Chief Executive of Scottish Development International, the international arm of Scottish Enterprise, said the findings reinforced the continued demand and opportunity for Scottish products across both traditional and emerging economies. “International trade is fundamental to Scotland’s economic growth,” she said, “and one of our biggest priorities is to help even more Scottish companies recognise and tap into the significant business opportunities that exist internationally.

“We are working closely with our partners to help equip Scottish businesses with enhanced skills and knowledge so they can be even more ambitious and successful when doing business internationally and we continue to increase our global resources to help maximise opportunities and provide market intelligence to help to inform sector specific strategies, such as the vast oil and gas opportunities in Brazil and West Africa.”

When looking at the UK, the report said that the country needed to re-orient its exports away from established markets to faster-growing ones. It had to target emerging economies, as the more mature economies will have less potential to increase their imports.