The news that three of his backs are unavailable for Sunday’s must-win game against Ireland has turned an already complex selection decision into an extremely difficult one for Scotland coach Andy Robinson.
Robinson has just lost outside centre Jo Ansbro and fullbacks Hugo Southwell and Rory Lamont to injury.
Of these, only Southwell’s would have been a blessing in disguise. The Stade Francais fullback played so dreadfully against Wales that he would have been lucky to make it into the 22, let alone the starting 15 for the match against Ireland.
But after that, it starts to get very tricky for Robinson. Southwell’s likely replacement would have been Rory Lamont but the Toulon fullback was injured last weekend against Agen, leaving the Scotland coach with a dilemma.
Robinson has made it clear he is a fan of the big Bath fullback Jack Cuthbert. Cuthbert, though, is uncapped and untested. The Irish would be certain to try to exploit that and he would have to cope with a barrage of high balls and attendant Irish tackles if he was picked for the first time for Sunday’s game.
If not Cuthbert then, it is likely to be Chris Paterson – a selection which appeared more likely this afternoon when Paterson was left out of Edinburgh’s squad for this week’s match against the Scarlets.
Robinson has not shown a huge amount of faith in Scotland’s record cap holder since he became coach and it is undoubtedly true that Paterson is certainly not the treat he once was. He is also decidedly lightweight as a fullback.
But picking Paterson would gives Robinson other options, options the coach should exploit for Sunday’s game. If Paterson is picked, then he would take over the goalkicking from the fly half (Dan Parks or Ruaridh Jackson).
One of the worries Robinson has had in picking Jackson is that he can be a bit wayward from the tee. Picking Paterson would solve that problem. Paterson could take all the kicks, from the tee and from hand to touch, leaving Jackson to do what he does best – run the back line. Not only that, but Paterson could slot into the fly half role if Jackson was injured.
If Robinson goes for Jackson and Paterson, therefore, Scotland would be covered in all departments: a running and speedy fly half, a superb goalkicking fullback and a substitute fly half too. They would also have a fly half who threatens the opposition back line and takes the ball flat, neither of which Parks does with any authority.
Paterson has been on the wrong side of the Scotland squad since the Six Nations started which suggested that the Edinburgh fullback was edging away from the side just when World Cup preparations are starting to be made. Now, though, he might have the chance to play himself back into the reckoning – as part of a double act with Jackson.
That would mean axing Parks from the squad with the World Cup round the corner? Would Robinson be brave enough to do that? We’ll see ...
That, though, is only part of the problem. Graeme Morrison, Robinson’s preferred inside centre, is out injured. First-choice outside centre, Ansbro, is also now out. Nick de Luca has been so ineffectual at inside centre in the first two games that Robinson sent him back to Edinburgh last week – as clear a sign as there can be that De Luca was being discarded ahead of the Irish game.
Who to pick? Sean Lamont? Lamont was certainly Scotland’s best player against Wales and has to start against Ireland. But, for all his power going forward and his strength in defence, passing is not Lamont’s strong point (remember the chance he butchered against Wales in Cardiff last year?)
He has played outside centre for the Scarlets but his best position remains on the wing.
One consideration Robinson will certainly have to have, though, is that somebody has to mark Brian O’Driscoll. Lamont may not be the best passer of the ball but, as he showed against Wales, he will tackle and tackle again until he collapses so he may well start at 13.
Max Evans is the best outside centre Scotland have available but Robinson has been trying to convert him into a wing and while he may consider bringing him back to the 13 shirt against Ireland, the chances are that he will keep him outside to continue his development as a winger.
That still leaves the inside centre position. Robinson may have been prepared to ditch De Luca before the injuries struck. Now, though, he may have to give him one more chance, if only because he has little option. The only other possibilities are Alex Grove (who has not been part of the squad this year so would take time to get up to speed) and Ben Cairns, who has also been allowed to play for Edinburgh this week which means he is not being considered either.
The changes in the pack are, however, easier to define. Tighthead Euan Murray has opted out because the game is on a Sunday (but he might have lost his place anyway) and will be replaced by Glasgow prop Moray Low.
Richie Gray will come into the second row in place of Nathan Hines, who should drop to the bench where he can cover both the second and back rows and Johnnie Beattie will probably return in place of Richie Vernon at number eight.
The side that Robinson may well pick, if he is being conservative, would be as follows: Jacobsen, Ford, Low, Gray, Kellock, Barclay, Brown, Beattie, Rory Lawson, Parks, De Luca, Lamont, Evans, Walker, Paterson; subs – Welsh, Scott Lawson, Hines, Rennie, Blair, Cuthbert.
The team he should pick, though, if he is feeling more adventurous, would be: Jacobsen, Ford, Low, Gray, Kellock, Barclay, Brown, Beattie, Blair, Jackson, De Luca, Evans, Lamont, Walker, Paterson; Subs: Welsh, Fergus Thompson, Hines, Rennie, Rory Lawson, Jim Thompson.
One criticism that has been levelled at Robinson in the past is that he is an excellent coach but a poor selector. This would be as good a time as any to prove those critics wrong.
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